The CET has launched a research project on Europe 2030’s future, when Europe’s hesitations will have given way to a clearer understanding of its finality. The prospective dimension will enable an assessment of various evolution scenarios with respect to the various modes of political organization of the European actors (nations, international organizations, regional groupings). In addition, it will enable an assessment of Europeans’ long term security and defense interests.  

We believe that it is necessary to start with a proper assessment of Europe’s human and physical geography; European territories, borders and populations being indicative of deep trends. In addition, extracontinental possessions, soft power and influence – alliance, footprint, multilateral agreements – are put to light. At the close of this section, we will examine how a coherent – or not – picture is drawn from this geopolitical approach to Europe and we will confront it to the risk and challenges of Europe’s strategic environment in 2030.

These evolutions imply a double balancing act, in both the nature and the exercise of power – between a territory-based approach to defense and a projection-based approach to defense on the one hand, and between soft and hard power on the other hand. The European Union must have in long run well defined borders – all the possible enlargements will be evaluated to this end. The various border management modes will also be examined, from the European Neighborhood Policy (VERIF) to a European shrinkage or partial occupation. At the crossroad between various geopolitical ensembles, the EU must be able to benefit from the choices it has and of the delimitation of its borders. It must also take into consideration global commons and possible deterritorialized areas unveiled by technological progress in its future strategic environment. Finally, the EU as a model for regional stability must be able to successfully manage crises, be they internal or within its vital interests zones. This must come as a priority to European decision-makers by 2030 and thus pave the way to gradual harmonization of the various European strategic cultures.

The implementation of an ambitious geostrategy will be possible only if Europe remains a dynamic global economic power. A proper understanding of the European potential requires an in-depth study of quantitative economic and demographic projections, but also of qualitative one, i.e., the various value systems or ideologies (citizenship, communautarism, multiculturalism, secularism) that will affect political divisions such as liberalism / socialism or national sovereignty / federalism.

In addition, the EU’s political cohesion must be understood in light of centrifuge forces potentially in exercise in 2030. In the near future, Europe governance will have to implement innovative tools in order to manage the tensions between diversity / unity or solidarity / national interests.

At an institutional level, flexibility-enabling mechanism must be rethought in the short run (defense or homeland efficiency), but also in light of possible new balances in Europe such as a Paris – London – Berlin triangle or a polycentric Europe. At the geopolitical level, possible regional elective affinities or common regional interests may add divisions. Those could have an extra-European implication, both in the political sense (belligerent irredentism, minority conflict) and the political sense – out of the EU (especially attractive could be the Russia and Turkish poles – the latter only if Turkey remains out the EU).